The U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan has warned that a peace deal could risk the Taliban`s return to power, as did the 1973 Paris peace agreement, which defeated the U.S.-backed South Vietnamese government in the Sigons case.   Pakistan warned that rising tensions in the Gulf region following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani could affect the already delayed peace process between the United States and Afghanistan.  The two rivals, India and Pakistan, are in conflict with the Afghan peace process. After an attack in May 2020 at a Kabul hospital, which the Afghan state accused the Taliban, while the United States accused the regional branch of IS, Pakistan accused India of derailing the trial. The agreement between the United States and the Taliban, signed in February 2020, was seen in India as a “victory for the Taliban and Pakistan.” The Afghan government rejected Pakistan`s claims, citing India as a partner.  India was an important military and development aid partner for Afghanistan.  Negotiators will also try to reach some kind of agreement on the country`s political future. Another possibility is that the Taliban may be the main cause of the break-in talks, either because Taliban leaders refuse to enter into negotiations or because they make unacceptable demands on the United States and the Afghan government. The Taliban have already questioned many issues, such as the legitimacy of the current Afghan government and the exchange of prisoners. The Afghan government did not participate in the February 2020 agreement because the Taliban deemed the Ghani government illegitimate and refused to negotiate with its representatives. Taliban leaders also left talks with the Afghan government in April 2020 after a lack of agreement on prisoner exchanges.
The Taliban in Afghanistan on Tuesday urged U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to continue to abide by the Doha peace agreement with the group signed during the Donald Trump administration. In February 2019, a new round of talks took place in Qatar, this time with Baradar in the Taliban delegation – he had been released by Pakistan in October 2018 at the request of the United States.   Khalilzad stated that this round of negotiations was “more productive than in the past” and that a draft peace agreement had been concluded. The agreement included the withdrawal of U.S. and international troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban, which did not allow other jihadist groups to operate inside the country.  The Taliban also announced progress in the negotiations.  The second way to an aborted agreement involves a situation in which internal talks begin, but either negotiations are suspended or the implementation of an interim agreement faces serious problems.